2013 Ghouta attacks

The 2013 Ghouta attacks were a series of alleged chemical attacks that occurred on Wednesday, 21 August 2013, in the Ghouta region of the Rif Dimashq Governorate of Syria. Opposition sources gave a death toll of 322 to 1,729. According to the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights (SOHR), which gave the lowest estimate of 322 killed. The attacks were launched on opposition controlled areas, with the opposition and victims blaming the Syrian government for the attacks. The attacks have so far not been independently confirmed due to difficulty of movement on the ground, and the Syrian government initially denied that chemical attacks occurred, but later accepted that they occurred and blamed the rebels for the attack. The United States, France, Israel, the United Kingdom, and Sweden believe that the Syrian government was responsible for the attack, while Russia, the Syrian government's top ally, claims that the perpetrators were the rebels. If the death toll is confirmed, the attack would be the deadliest chemical attack since the Halabja poison gas attack in 1988.

The Syrian government prevented United Nations investigators from reaching the sites of the attacks, despite their accommodations being only a few kilometers away. On 25 August, the Syrian government agreed to allow UN investigators to visit the site of the attacks. However, US officials believe that the evidence could be "significantly corrupted" by this time, most likely from the Syrian government's continuous artillery shelling of the neighborhoods where the attacks took place.

Background
The attack came almost exactly one year after U.S. President Barack Obama's "red line" speech. According to a Jerusalem Post correspondent, the attack occurred after "the US and its allies concluded months ago that, since at least Christmas of last year, Syria’s nominal president Bashar Assad has tested chemical weapons intermittently on his own people."

The attacks
The attacks reportedly occurred around 03:00 in the morning on 21 August 2013, in the rebel-held and mostly Sunni Ghouta agricultural area, just east of Damascus, which had been under an Army siege, backed by Hezbollah, for months. The towns attacked were: Hammuriyah, Irbin, Saqba, Kafr Batna, Mudamiyah, Harasta, Zamalka and Ain Terma. An attack was also reported in the rebel-held Damascus suburb of Jobar. Some of the victims died while sleeping.

On 21 August, the LCC claimed that of the 1,338 victims, 1,000 were in Zamalka, among which 600 bodies were transferred to medical points in other towns and 400 remained at a Zamalka medical centre. At least six medics died while treating the victims. The attack is believed to have been more deadly than it otherwise would have been due to Syrians fleeing the regime bombardment by hiding in basements, where the heavier-than-air chemical agents sank to these lower-lying areas, which in addition had little ventilation.

The day after the chemical attacks, on 22 August, the area of Ghouta was bombarded by the Syrian army.

Timing
The BBC News interpreted darkness and prayer calls in videos to be consistent with a pre-dawn timing of the attacks. BBC News considered it significant that the "three main Facebook pages of Syrian opposition groups" reported "fierce clashes between FSA rebels and government forces, as well as shelling by government forces" at 01:15 local time (UTC+3) on 21 August 2013 in the eastern Gouta areas that were later claimed to have been attacked with chemical weapons.

BBC News stated that an hour and a half later, the same three Facebook pages reported the first claims of chemical weapons use, within a few minutes of one another. At 02:45 UTC+3, the Ein Tarma Co-ordination Committee stated that "a number of residents died in suffocation cases due to chemical shelling of the al-Zayniya area [in Ein Tarma]." At 02:47, the Sham News Network reported an "urgent" message that Zamalka had been attacked with chemical weapons shells. At 02:55, the LCC made "a similar report." The Los Angeles Times timed the attacks at "about" 03:00.

Symptoms
Witness statements to The Guardian about symptoms included "people who were sleeping in their homes [who] died in their beds," headaches and nausea, "foam coming out of [victims'] mouths and noses," a "smell something like vinegar and rotten eggs," suffocation, "bodies [that] were turning blue," a "smell like cooking gas" and redness and itching of the eyes. Richard Spencer of The Telegraph summarised witness statements, stating, "The poison ... may have killed hundreds, but it has left twitching, fainting, confused but compelling survivors." Symptoms reported by Ghouta residents and doctors to Human Rights Watch included "suffocation, muscle spasms and frothing at the mouth, which are consistent with nerve agent poisoning."

Syrian human rights lawyer Razan Zaitouneh, present in Eastern Ghouta, stated, "Hours [after the shelling], we started to visit the medical points in Ghouta to where injured were removed, and we couldn't believe our eyes. I haven't seen such death in my whole life. People were lying on the ground in hallways, on roadsides, in hundreds."

Médecins Sans Frontières (MSF) stated that in three hospitals in the area with which it has "a strong and reliable collaboration", about "3600 patients displaying neurotoxic symptoms [were received] in less than three hours on the morning" of 21 August, among which 355 died. Symptoms listed by MSF included "convulsions, excess saliva, pinpoint pupils, blurred vision and respiratory distress". MSF Director of Operations Bart Janssens stated that MSF "can neither scientifically confirm the cause of these symptoms nor establish who is responsible for the attack. However, the reported symptoms of the patients, in addition to the epidemiological pattern of the events—characterised by the massive influx of patients in a short period of time, the origin of the patients, and the contamination of medical and first aid workers—strongly indicate mass exposure to a neurotoxic agent."

Delivery method
Abu Omar of the Free Syrian Army stated to The Guardian that the rockets involved in the attack were unusual because "you could hear the sound of the rocket in the air but you could not hear any sound of explosion" and no obvious damage to buildings occurred. Human Rights Watch's witnesses reported "symptoms and delivery methods consistent with the use of chemical nerve agents."

Activists and local residents contacted by The Guardian said that "the remains of 20 rockets [thought to have been carrying neurotoxic gas were] found in the affected areas. Many [remained] mostly intact, suggesting that they did not detonate on impact and potentially dispersed gas before hitting the ground."

Intelligence reports
On 23 August, US officials stated that American intelligence detected activity at Syrian chemical weapons sites before the attack on 21 August.

Analysis of videos
Experts who have analysed the first video said it shows the strongest evidence yet consistent with the use of a lethal toxic agent. The evidence was so compelling that it convinced experts who had previously raised questions over the authenticity of previous claims or who had highlighted contradictions, one of them being Jean Pascal Zanders, a former analyst from the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute.

Visible symptoms reportedly included rolling eyes, foaming at the mouth, and tremors. There was at least one image of a child suffering miosis, the pin-point pupil effect associated with the nerve agent Sarin, a powerful neurotoxin reportedly used before in Syria. Ralph Trapp, a former scientist at the Organisation for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons, said the footage showed how a chemical weapons attack on a civilian area would look like, and went on to note "This is one of the first videos I've seen from Syria where the numbers start to make sense. If you have a gas attack you would expect large numbers of people, children and adults, to be affected, particularly if it's in a built-up area."

According to a report by The Telegraph, "videos uploaded to YouTube by activists showed rows of motionless bodies and medics attending to patients apparently in the grip of seizures. In one piece of footage, a young boy appeared to be foaming at the mouth while convulsing."

Hamish de Bretton-Gordon, a former commander of British Chemical and Biological counterterrorism forces, told BBC that the images were very similar to previous incidents he had witnessed, although he could not verify the footage.

General
On 22 August, the United States said they were unable to conclusively say that chemical weapons were used in the attack. U.S. President Barack Obama directed U.S. intelligence agencies to urgently help verify the allegations. On August 23, American and European security sources made a preliminary assessment that chemical weapons were used by Syrian forces, likely with high-level approval from the government of President Bashar al-Assad. The sources cautioned that, due to the assessment being preliminary, they were still seeking conclusive proof, which could take days, weeks or even longer to gather. On the day of agreement for UN onsite investigations a senior US official stated that "the belated decision by the regime to grant access to the U.N. team is too late to be credible," and that "there is very little doubt at this point that a chemical weapon was used by the Syrian regime against civilians in this incident."

Physical arguments
CNN noted that some opposition activists claimed the use of "Agent 15," also known as BZ, in the attacks, for which some experts express doubt the Syrian government possesses, and the symptoms caused by said chemical are very different from the symptoms reported in this attack. Independent experts who studied the flood of online videos, which appeared on the morning of the attacks, were unsure of the cause of the deaths. Gwyn Winfield, editorial director at the magazine CBRNe World, which reports on chemical, biological, radiological, nuclear or explosives use, analyzed the videos and wrote on the magazine's site: "Clearly respiratory distress, some nerve spasms and a half-hearted washdown (involving water and bare hands?), but it could equally be a riot control agent as a (chemical warfare agent)." Some analysts speculated that a stockpile of chemical agents may have been hit by shelling, whether controlled by the rebels or the government. After an analysis a professor of microbiology, who watched the videos, concluded with a "best guess" that the videos were indicative of the aftermath of an attack with some incapacitating chemical agent, but probably not sarin gas or a similar weapon, as they would have left signs of visible blistering.

On 25 August, Doctors Without Borders stated that "scientific" proof of a chemical attack was still lacking. They said Syrian doctors, with whom they were working with, still had no scientific proof and needed to take samples and take them to a specialist laboratory to carry out conclusive tests.

Motives
Some pointed to the question of motive and timing, if government forces were responsible, since the hotel in which the team of United Nations chemical weapons inspectors were staying was just a few miles from the attack. A CNN reporter pointed to the fact that government forces did not appear to be in imminent danger of being overrun by rebels in the areas in question, in which a stalemate had set. He questioned why the Army would risk such an action that could cause international intervention. The reporter also questioned if the Army would use sarin gas just a few kilometers from the center of Damascus on what was a windy day.

A reporter for The Telegraph also pointed to the questionable timing given government forces had recently beaten back rebels in some areas around Damascus and recaptured territory. "Using chemical weapons might make sense when he is losing, but why launch gas attacks when he is winning anyway?" The reporter also questioned why would the attacks happen just three days after the inspectors arrived in Syria. Bloomberg news offered an opinion to the question "why would the Assad regime launch its biggest chemical attack on rebels and civilians precisely at the moment when a UN inspection team was parked in Damascus? The answer to that question is easy: Because Assad believes that no one–not the UN, not President Obama, not other Western powers, not the Arab League–will do a damn thing to stop him."

Israeli news reporter Ron Ben-Yishai stated that the motive to use chemical weapons could be the "army's inability to seize the rebel's stronghold in Damascus' eastern neighbourhoods." He also speculated that this coupled with FSA planning to expand the area in their control and advance towards the centre of the capital which, in his opinion, pressured the government to use chemical weapons against civilians in these neighbourhoods with the goal of deterring the FSA fighters who seek shelter inside residential homes and operate from within them.

Syrian human rights lawyer Razan Zaitouneh stated that the Assad government "would [not] care about [using] chemical weapons, [since] it knows that the international community would not do anything about it, like it did nothing about all the previous crimes the regime committed against its people. ... why [would] the regime [not] care to use [chemical] weapons or any kind of weapons to stop the progress of the Syrian Free Army from the capital, Damascus?"

International reactions

 * 🇫🇷 France - The French Foreign Ministry said it didn't have independent confirmation that an attack took place as rebels claimed, but it said those responsible for the chemical weapons attack "will be held accountable." They also called for the investigation of the use of chemical weapons in the attacks. France has also said that the international community should respond to this incident "with force." . On August 25, France declared it had "no doubt" Damascus was behind chemical attacks.
 * 🇮🇱 Israel - Yuval Steinitz, Israeli Minister of Strategic Affairs, said Israeli intelligence assessments indicated that "chemical weapons were used, and they were not used for the first time," before adding "Nothing practical, significant, has been done in the last two years in order to stop the continuing massacre of civilians carried out by the Assad regime," he said. "I think that the investigation of the United Nations is a joke." Minister of Defense Moshe Ya'alon said the Assad regime has lost control of Syria, and is present in only forty percent of the country. Describing the civil war as a life and death struggle between Allawites and Sunnis, Yaalon, said there was no end in sight to the conflict.
 * 🇵🇱 Poland - Polish Ministry of Foreign Affairs condemned the missile attack against civilians in the suburbs of Damascus and expressed grave concern about the reports of the use of chemical weapons there. He stated, "Should these allegations be confirmed, this would testify to yet another unacceptable escalation of the conflict in Syria, which has already claimed more than a hundred thousand lives. We would like to underline the fact that the use of chemical weapons by any party under any circumstances would constitute a grave violation of all relevant norms of international law."
 * Russian Federation - Russian authorities said that the chemical weapons attack was a clear "provocation planned in advance." Russian Foreign Ministry spokesman Alexander Lukashevich stated that "The fact that agenda-driven regional mass media have begun an aggressive attack at once, as if on command, laying all the responsibility on the government, draws attention. The fact that the criminal action near Damascus was carried out just when the mission of UN experts to investigate the statements on possible chemical weapons use there has successfully begun its work in Syria points to this."
 * 🇸🇪 Sweden - The Swedish Foreign Minister Carl Bildt said on his blog that it was an gas attack and that a U.N. team must investigate immediately. "When I tried to evaluate the information available, I find it difficult to come to any other conclusion than that a lethal chemical substance has been used in the attack regime forces during the night between Tuesday and Wednesday conducted against it by the opposition-controlled territory." Former U.N Inspector Hans Blix says in the Swedish newspaper Aftonbladet that no one is going to act millitarily and that the U.N sanctions are toothless. The Swedish Defence Research Agency Middle East expert Magnus Norell says that "Taking things through the UN Security Council is just an excuse to not do something, because you know that the veto will. Yesterday refrained from requiring admission, man "called" only. It's clear that Assad doesn't care about the U.N." Bildt said he believes that the Syrian president helped coordinate the attacks, though the U.N. has not been allowed into Ghouta yet.
 * 🇬🇧 United Kingdom - British Foreign Secretary William Hague called on the Syrian government to give access to the U.N. team to investigate the attacks. "I am deeply concerned by reports that hundreds of people, including children, have been killed in airstrikes and a chemical weapons attack on rebel-held areas near Damascus," he said. "These reports are uncorroborated and we are urgently seeking more information. But it is clear that if they are verified, it would mark a shocking escalation in the use of chemical weapons in Syria." While the U.N. awaits on if investigation of the incident is allowed, Hague, along with Bildt, said he believes that Assad carried out the attacks.
 * 🇺🇸 United States - The U.S. stated it was "deeply concerned by reports that chemical weapons were used" and that officials were "working urgently to gather additional information." "The United States strongly condemns any and all use of chemical weapons. Those responsible for the use of chemical weapons must be held accountable. Today, we are formally requesting that the United Nations urgently investigate this new allegation." President Barack Obama referred to the incident as a "big event of grave concern." On August 24, the President met with his National Security Council and received a detailed review of a range of potential options he had requested be prepared for the United States and the international community to respond to the use of chemical weapons. He also talked with the UK Prime Minister David Cameron about the situation and would continue to consult each other closely regarding this incident, as well as possible responses by the international community.
 * 🇺🇳 United Nations - Britain called an emergency session of the UN Security Council on 21 August. Western nations pushed for a strongly worded resolution which would have asked for the UN to "urgently take the steps necessary for today's attack to be investigated by the UN mission," however, due to objections from Russia and China, the emergent statement was a more reticently-worded demand for "clarity" regarding the incident.
 * Medecins Sans Frontieres - According to the BBC, the NGO said that "hospitals it supports in Syria treated about 3,600 patients with "neurotoxic symptoms", of whom 355 have died. The medical charity said the patients had arrived in three hospitals in the Damascus area on 21 August - when opposition activists say chemical attacks were launched against rebels." However, according to MSF Director of Operations Bart Janssens, "MSF can neither scientifically confirm the cause of these symptoms nor establish who is responsible for the attack."

Domestic reactions

 * Syrian Information Minister Omran al-Zoubi was quoted by the official Syrian news agency, SANA, as saying that "the government did not and would not use such weapons -- in the case they even exist. Everything that has been said is absurd, primitive, illogical and fabricated. What we say is what we mean: there is no use of such things (chemical weapons) at all, at least not by the Syrian army or the Syrian state, and it's easy to prove and it is not that complicated." SANA called the reports of chemical attacks as "untrue and designed to derail the ongoing U.N. inquiry." A Syrian military official appeared on state television denouncing the reports as "a desperate opposition attempt to make up for rebel defeats on the ground."
 * Syria's opposition National Coalition called the attack a "coup de grace that kills all hopes for a political solution in Syria."
 * The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights reported early in the morning that the Syrian armed forces have committed the most violent military assault on the eastern and western Ghouta since the beginning of the uprising. In their statement they said "we assure the world that silence and inaction in the face of such gross and large-scale war crimes, committed in this instance by the Syrian regime, will only embolden the criminals to continue in this path. The international community is thus complicit in these crimes because of its polarization, silence and inability to work on a settlement that would lead to the end of the daily bloodshed in Syria."

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